A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
